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Thursday, 13 November 2025

Plunging US wine sales to Canada create opportunities for others


Sales of US wines in Canada have plunged, opening a huge opportunity for exporters from Australia and New Zealand. 

American wine sales in Canada have plummeted after Canada began barring the sale of US alcohol in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, US news outlet Newsweek reported. 

It said that in a recent report, the Sacramento-based Wine Institute found that US wine exports to its neighbour were down 91% between March and July 2025 compared to the same period last year. 

The advocacy group, which represents wineries and related businesses across California, also estimated that US producers have lost out on roughly $161 million in export value to Canada since March.

Very little US wine is exported to Australia - where our product is generally more affordable and more palatable - but Australian/NZ producers could fill the gap on Canadian shelves. 

Canada accounts for a significant portion of the United States' wine exports - 36 % in 2024 - and ongoing trade policy tensions have left producers concerned that they could lose out on this key market, fears shared by US distillers. 

The Wine Institute said in its report: “There has been no comparable, immediate drop in wine sales of this magnitude in recent history.”

In March, the Canadian government imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports in response to the duties Trump had placed on the country. Several Canadian provinces, including populous Ontario and Quebec, also decided to remove US alcohol from government-run liquor stores. This included LCBO stores (top image). 

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that he would be dropping the retaliatory tariffs in August, but many provinces have kept their bans in place.

The effects of these bans have been compounded by a wider boycott of US goods in response to the trade standoff, as well as Trump’s repeated references to Canada as America’s “51st state,” which have also been credited with a drop in Canadians travelling to the US.

The US International Trade Commission says wine exports fell 73% year over year in March, from $34.5 million to $9.2 million. These losses worsened in the following months, resulting in an overall decline of 96% for the second quarter.

This mirrors the struggles of America’s distillers, with second-quarter spirit exports to Canada plunging by 85% percent year-over-year. 

The Wine Institute said in its report: “Restoring access isn’t just about trade, it’s about protecting family livelihoods, supporting economies and renewing a relationship that has benefited both nations for generations. Wine Institute stands ready with a plan to help US wineries rebuild those relationships and return to Canadian shelves as quickly as possible.”

The Wine Institute says that should the bans remain in place and exports continue to sink, “the US will cede its share of the market to the EU, Australia and New Zealand.” 

So opportunity knocks. 

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