The world still has a hunger for Australian beef

The world can't get enough of Australian beef. 

The Australian beef industry looks set to remain on a firm footing through 2026 despite record production levels, thanks to strong global demand and resilient export markets, Rabobank says in its newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2026.

The annual report, published by the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division, says while record supply levels - including high cattle inventories and peak slaughter volumes – present risks, particularly if seasonal conditions deteriorate, continued demand from international markets, led by the US, is providing an important support for prices.

The report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said successive years of favourable seasonal conditions have allowed the Australian cattle industry to rebuild inventory levels to what RaboResearch believes to be the next cyclical peak.

“This will generate record cattle slaughter and production volumes in 2026,” Gidley-Baird said.

“Despite these record volumes, a strong global market is supporting record export prices and, in turn, historically-high cattle prices, particularly for finished cattle.”

RaboResearch projects this strong export market will continue through 2026 and into 2027, driven largely by import demand from the US market.

But  the report says inflationary pressures of the Iran war and the impact on consumer sentiment will need to be monitored.

“The strong export market is expected to provide support for the Australian domestic cattle market, and we believe should hold prices around levels seen through Q1,” Gidley-Baird said.

A deterioration of seasonal conditions would be the largest risk in the system, he said.

“With high cattle inventory, dry seasonal conditions – like those conditions being experienced in parts of New South Wales – could force producers to sell stock rapidly into a market flush with cattle. 

"Slaughter volumes are already at historically high levels, adding an additional 10% to these levels as we have seen in previous drought conditions would test the capacity of the system.”

Image: Beef Australia

Australia going nuts for almonds

Australia's almond industry is going nuts. 

The almond sector is entering a new era as it begins large-scale orchard replanting to enable future growth and satisfy increasing local and global appetite, Rabobank says in a newly-released report.

In its Australian Almond Outlook: Replanting for Growth Beyond 2030, the specialist agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says the Australian almond industry is “entering a pivotal transition phase” with renewal of ageing orchards and expansion into new areas.

“The next five years will begin the first large-scale replanting cycle that (along with expansion into new regions) sets the foundation for long-term growth in the Australian almond industry,” the report says.

This could see total planted area of almonds in Australia lift by between 5000 and 10,000 hectares [the equivalent of seven to 15% growth in total area] by 2030, it says.

Meanwhile, positive global demand for almonds - coupled with limited production growth in California, the world’s largest almond producer and Australia’s main export competitor - should contribute to an improving market outlook, RaboResearch says, “offering opportunities for the Australian industry to grow its share of the global market”.

The report's author, RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott (top image), says the next five years will see the first large-scale replanting occur in Australia’s burgeoning almond industry, with many of the sector’s first-established 10,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2001 to 2005 reaching the end of their productive life between now and 2030.

“This represents approximately 16% of the total area of Australian almonds in 2024, which will require replanting over the next five years,” she said.

On top of this, some of an additional 13,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2006 and 2010 are also expected to need replanting in the coming five years as the productivity of older plants declines.

While the replanting effort may flatten production levels from now to 2030, longer term it should support further production growth for the industry, Piggott says.

“And we expect to see further orchard developments as almonds will likely continue to be one of the highest-value use cases for water in the southern Murray Darling Basin,” she said.

The report noted Australian almond production in 2025 was down 4.6% on the previous year to 155,697 tonnes KWE. This, however, was still up 19% on the five-year average, Piggott said.

Australian wine industry still faces a major problem

Even the early removal of Chinese tariffs on wines imported from Australia would not be enough to prevent the wine industry facing several years of oversupply, a new report preidcts.

Rabobank's Wine Quarterly Q3 2023 report says that improved trade relations between the two countries and the recent removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian barley has led to optimism that five-year tariffs placed on Australian wine in March 2021 may be removed early.

But the Rabobank report says even in a “best case scenario”, with tariffs removed this year and Chinese consumption of Australian wine recovering quickly, this would “not be a panacea” with Australia’s wine industry still facing at least two years to work through its current wine surplus.

While this isn’t good news for Australian wine makers, there is an upside for consumers, says the report author: RaboResearch associate analyst Pia Piggott (image).

She says the oversupply is keeping prices of many quality Australian red wines at reduced levels.

So large is the current oversupply, says Piggott, that Australia has the equivalent of 859 Olympic-sized swimming pools worth of wine in storage.

"That’s over two billion litres of wine, or over 2.8 million bottles of the wine,” she said.

The Rabobank report says Chinese anti-dumping tariffs placed on Australian wine had led to significant disruptions for Australia’s wine industry, with Australia’s value of exports decreasing 33% over the past two years.

Piggott said with the tariffs coinciding with significant growth in Australian production and logistics bottlenecks from Covid, the Australian wine industry is now dealing with inventory oversupply which is depressing prices - particularly for commercial red varieties.

“Driven by sustained economic growth, rising incomes as well as the social status of wine drinking and gifting, global wine imports to China grew at an impressive 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the decade up to 2017 elevating China to be a top five wine importing nation globally,” she said.

“In the four years following the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement in 2015, the tariff on Australian wine reduced from 14% to zero %, helping to double Australia’s market share in China from 12% to 24%.

“When a slew of Chinese anti-dumping tariffs and soft bans hit various products exported by Australia in 2020-2021, wine took the most notable hit, losing about one third of export value from its peak in 2019.

“Unluckily, the tariff coincided with an exceptional growing season - and Australia’s largest crush on record.”