The world still has a hunger for Australian beef

The world can't get enough of Australian beef. 

The Australian beef industry looks set to remain on a firm footing through 2026 despite record production levels, thanks to strong global demand and resilient export markets, Rabobank says in its newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2026.

The annual report, published by the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division, says while record supply levels - including high cattle inventories and peak slaughter volumes – present risks, particularly if seasonal conditions deteriorate, continued demand from international markets, led by the US, is providing an important support for prices.

The report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said successive years of favourable seasonal conditions have allowed the Australian cattle industry to rebuild inventory levels to what RaboResearch believes to be the next cyclical peak.

“This will generate record cattle slaughter and production volumes in 2026,” Gidley-Baird said.

“Despite these record volumes, a strong global market is supporting record export prices and, in turn, historically-high cattle prices, particularly for finished cattle.”

RaboResearch projects this strong export market will continue through 2026 and into 2027, driven largely by import demand from the US market.

But  the report says inflationary pressures of the Iran war and the impact on consumer sentiment will need to be monitored.

“The strong export market is expected to provide support for the Australian domestic cattle market, and we believe should hold prices around levels seen through Q1,” Gidley-Baird said.

A deterioration of seasonal conditions would be the largest risk in the system, he said.

“With high cattle inventory, dry seasonal conditions – like those conditions being experienced in parts of New South Wales – could force producers to sell stock rapidly into a market flush with cattle. 

"Slaughter volumes are already at historically high levels, adding an additional 10% to these levels as we have seen in previous drought conditions would test the capacity of the system.”

Image: Beef Australia

Australia producing too many wine grapes

Bad news today for the Australian wine industry as national stock levels rise.

Wine production exceeded sales in 2024–25, leading to a rise of 5% in national stock levels, The Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025, released by Wine Australia.

The worsening imbalance between supply and demand comes as global conditions for wine remain tough. 

Analysis of global market conditions suggests that the outlook for wine has deteriorated in the past 12 months. 

Global consumption has continued to decline and remains lower than global production. Consumption is forecast to decrease further in the next five years.

These unfavourable market conditions are compounded for Australia by the high stock levels carried forward from 2024–25. 

The increase in Australian wine stocks without an increase in sales is likely to reduce future demand for wine and wine grapes. As a result, grape prices are unlikely to improve in the next few years.

Results large winemakers in Australia indicated that total Australian wine production from the 2025 vintage was 1.13 billion litres, or 126 million 9-litre case equivalents. This was 9% higher than in 2024, but 7% below the 10-year average of 1.22 billion litres.

The production of red wine increased by 15%, while the production of white wine increased by 2%. 

Wine Australia manager for market insights Peter Bailey said that the result was expected, after the grape crush in 2025 increased by 11%, with nearly 90% of the additional tonnes being red.

“Production was still below the 10-year average, but it was the second vintage in a row where the crush increased from the 20-year low in 2023, despite the high levels of stock going into the 2025 vintage,” Bailey said.

Export sales increased by 3% to 638 million litres, driven by growth in exports to mainland China, which increased by 53 million litres to 85 million litres in the latest 12-month period.

Image: Andrii Omelnytskii, Scop.io