Global tourism proves resilient

International tourism grew modestly in the first half of 2026, with global arrivals up by 0.4% even as insecurity in the Middle East, elevated oil prices, and broader inflationary pressures tested the sector's resilience.

The latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism showed an estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June 2026, some 3 million more than the same period last year. 

While global arrivals increased by 2% in Q1 2026, they then dropped by 1% in Q2, following a 3% decline in April. That drop was largely due to the calendar effect of the Easter holiday period starting in March and because of the impacts of the Middle East conflict.

Globally, arrivals then dropped 3% in June. That was driven by a 6% decline in Western Europe, partly due to a heatwave in some destinations.

South-East Asia recorded 5% fewer arrivals in June as a result of weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, air travel disruptions through the Middle East, and increased travel costs.

Some destinations in Oceania (-6% in June) were also impacted by Typhoon Sinlaku in Q2.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: "The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile. The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself and serves as a clear reminder that, in such a connected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere and not just when a crisis begins."

The World Tourism Barometer breaks down performance by region and sub-region. The data shows:In the first half of 2026, Africa (+4%) and Europe (+3%) recorded solid growth in arrivals, while the Americas saw a 2% increase, with mixed results across sub-regions.

Arrivals in Asia and the Pacific grew by 1% over this six-month period but remained 11% below 2019 levels as disruptions to air connectivity, higher air fares, and uncertainty affected intra-regional demand.

The Middle East saw a 22% drop over this period, as it was directly impacted by Iraeli and Iranian aggression. 

Although the conflict has negatively affected international tourism in the Middle East and other regions since early March 2026, disruptions to air traffic gradually eased in May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire. 

That resulted in the reopening of some air routes and led to an uneven rebound in consumer sentiment.

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Air New Zealand flags cancellations as well as airfare increases

Earlier this week we reported bad news for flyers with the increase in the price of jet fuel leading Air New Zealand becoming the first international airline to increase airfares in a bid to offset challenging operating costs. 

Air New Zealand confirmed that it has implemented fare changes, saying that if the conflict in the Middle East continues, it would take further pricing action.

Now the airline is flagging flight cancellations.

Air NZ is set to cancel around 1100 flights affecting thousands of passengers through until early May.

Air NZ chief executive Nikhil Ravishankar told Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report that between now and the end of April/early May the airline will cancel around 1100 flights.

In that period the airline will carry around 1.9 million passengers, so 44,000 passengers will be affected by flight cancellations, he said. Most of the passengers will be moved to flights on the same day.

The exact flights cancelled have not yet been announced.

Services would be cut "proportionally across the board", meaning both domestic and international, but no routes would be cut altogether. Off-peak services would be the focus of the cuts, he said.

So you can thank President Trump's "pre-emptive" action for that. 

IATA’s weekly monitoring of jet fuel prices has revealed a 58% rise from US$99.40 to US$157 a barrel on last week. 

Air New Zealand also pointed to an increasingly volatile spread in the difference between crude oil and the price of refined jet fuel. 

“Since the conflict began, the crack spread has been particularly volatile, widening from approximately US$22 per barrel before the conflict to as high as US$115 per barrel,” Air New Zealand said in a statement. 

"As a result, the airline has suspended its 2026 [earnings] guidance for the foreseeable future, with the crisis expected to 'meaningfully affect' its second-half earnings." 

Network and schedule adjustments were also flagged. The share prices for both Qantas and Virgin Australia both dropped this week on the back of the jet fuel crisis before rallying.