Chocolate lovers who have been hit by rising prices are finally set to get some sweet relief.
Cocoa futures prices are starting to ease after hitting record highs, a new international research report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank reveals.
Chocolate retail prices hit predicted highs, but the end of the price surge in sight, the report says.
Chocolate retail prices hit predicted highs, but the end of the price surge in sight, the report says.
That said "retail chocolate prices will remain well above pre-'cocoa crisis' levels, signalling a new normal for the industry".
Chocolate manufacturers and retailers are adapting to as challenging environment, balancing cost recovery with consumer retention, the report said.
RaboResearch agriculture analyst Paul Joules said since 2021, retail chocolate prices globally have surged, driven by a cocoa market in crisis due to poor harvests, crop disease and structural supply issues. This has resulted in higher chocolate prices for consumers.
“This has led manufacturers and retailers to expand their value ranges, offering more affordable alternatives to cost-conscious shoppers,” he said.
Joules said chocolate manufacturers are employing strategies like “shrinkflation” and “skimpflation” to protect margins without losing consumers.
“Shrinkflation involves reducing pack sizes, while skimpflation changes recipes to lower cocoa content, often replacing cocoa butter with cheaper fats or fillers,” he said.
Joules said in some European markets, these changes have altered products to the extent that they no longer meet the legal definition of “chocolate,” forcing brands to update product descriptions.
Joules added that said the worst of the “cocoa shock” appears to be over, with cocoa futures expected to fall significantly by mid-2027.
While chocolate prices are projected to ease gradually, they will still be higher than in 2021, the report says.
Image: Awatif Abdulaziz, Scop.io
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