Tourism booming despite global uncertainty

Global tourism continues to boom despite ongoing issues in the Middle East. 

UN Tourism's latest data shows 207 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about 6 million more than the same period of 2025.

While the start of the year saw sustained travel demand overall (+2.5% cumulative growth in January and February), the Middle East conflict impacted performance in March (+0.4%).

The US assault on Iran and Israel's genocide in Palestine and Lebanon is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflicts' duration and scope.

Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions. 

More expensive travel coupled with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer tourism destinations while also affecting overall travel demand.

“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation," says UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais. 

"This is placing pressure on travellers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”

The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index, which monitors sentiment by 300 tourism professionals around the world, reflects a cautiously positive outlook for May-August 2026, amid a challenging geopolitical environment.

Global tourism was bouncing back, then came Omicron

After a weak first half of 2021, international tourism rebounded during the northern hemisphere summer season, boosting results in the third quarter of the year, especially in Europe.

Then came Omicron.

The newest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, issued today, shows international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) increased by 58% in July-September compared to the same period of 2020.

But they remained 64% below 2019 levels.

Europe recorded the best relative performance in the third quarter, with international arrivals 53% down on the same three-month period of 2019. In August and September arrivals were at -63% compared to 2019, the best monthly results since the start of the pandemic.

Between January and September, worldwide international tourist arrivals stood at -20% compared to 2020, a clear improvement over on the first six months of the year (-54%).

Nonetheless, overall arrivals are still 76% below pre-pandemic levels with uneven performances among world regions.

In some sub regions - southern and Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, North and Central America - arrivals actually rose above 2020 levels in the first nine months of 2021.

UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said: “Data for the third quarter of 2021 is encouraging. However, arrivals are still 76% below pre-pandemic levels and results across the different global regions remain uneven.

@In light of the rising cases and the emergence of new variants we cannot let our guard down and need to continue our efforts to ensure equal access to vaccinations, coordinate travel procedures, make use of digital vaccination certificates to facilitate mobility and continue to support the sector.”