UN Tourism's latest data shows 207 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about 6 million more than the same period of 2025.
While the start of the year saw sustained travel demand overall (+2.5% cumulative growth in January and February), the Middle East conflict impacted performance in March (+0.4%).
The US assault on Iran and Israel's genocide in Palestine and Lebanon is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflicts' duration and scope.
Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions.
While the start of the year saw sustained travel demand overall (+2.5% cumulative growth in January and February), the Middle East conflict impacted performance in March (+0.4%).
The US assault on Iran and Israel's genocide in Palestine and Lebanon is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflicts' duration and scope.
Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions.
More expensive travel coupled with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer tourism destinations while also affecting overall travel demand.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation," says UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation," says UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.
"This is placing pressure on travellers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index, which monitors sentiment by 300 tourism professionals around the world, reflects a cautiously positive outlook for May-August 2026, amid a challenging geopolitical environment.
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