The world can't get enough of Australian beef.
The Australian beef industry looks set to remain on a firm footing through 2026 despite record production levels, thanks to strong global demand and resilient export markets, Rabobank says in its newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2026.
The annual report, published by the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division, says while record supply levels - including high cattle inventories and peak slaughter volumes – present risks, particularly if seasonal conditions deteriorate, continued demand from international markets, led by the US, is providing an important support for prices.
The report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said successive years of favourable seasonal conditions have allowed the Australian cattle industry to rebuild inventory levels to what RaboResearch believes to be the next cyclical peak.
“This will generate record cattle slaughter and production volumes in 2026,” Gidley-Baird said.
“Despite these record volumes, a strong global market is supporting record export prices and, in turn, historically-high cattle prices, particularly for finished cattle.”
RaboResearch projects this strong export market will continue through 2026 and into 2027, driven largely by import demand from the US market.
But the report says inflationary pressures of the Iran war and the impact on consumer sentiment will need to be monitored.
“The strong export market is expected to provide support for the Australian domestic cattle market, and we believe should hold prices around levels seen through Q1,” Gidley-Baird said.
A deterioration of seasonal conditions would be the largest risk in the system, he said.
“With high cattle inventory, dry seasonal conditions – like those conditions being experienced in parts of New South Wales – could force producers to sell stock rapidly into a market flush with cattle.
RaboResearch projects this strong export market will continue through 2026 and into 2027, driven largely by import demand from the US market.
But the report says inflationary pressures of the Iran war and the impact on consumer sentiment will need to be monitored.
“The strong export market is expected to provide support for the Australian domestic cattle market, and we believe should hold prices around levels seen through Q1,” Gidley-Baird said.
A deterioration of seasonal conditions would be the largest risk in the system, he said.
“With high cattle inventory, dry seasonal conditions – like those conditions being experienced in parts of New South Wales – could force producers to sell stock rapidly into a market flush with cattle.
"Slaughter volumes are already at historically high levels, adding an additional 10% to these levels as we have seen in previous drought conditions would test the capacity of the system.”
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