Australia producing too many wine grapes

Bad news today for the Australian wine industry as national stock levels rise.

Wine production exceeded sales in 2024–25, leading to a rise of 5% in national stock levels, The Australian Wine Production, Sales and Inventory Report 2025, released by Wine Australia.

The worsening imbalance between supply and demand comes as global conditions for wine remain tough. 

Analysis of global market conditions suggests that the outlook for wine has deteriorated in the past 12 months. 

Global consumption has continued to decline and remains lower than global production. Consumption is forecast to decrease further in the next five years.

These unfavourable market conditions are compounded for Australia by the high stock levels carried forward from 2024–25. 

The increase in Australian wine stocks without an increase in sales is likely to reduce future demand for wine and wine grapes. As a result, grape prices are unlikely to improve in the next few years.

Results large winemakers in Australia indicated that total Australian wine production from the 2025 vintage was 1.13 billion litres, or 126 million 9-litre case equivalents. This was 9% higher than in 2024, but 7% below the 10-year average of 1.22 billion litres.

The production of red wine increased by 15%, while the production of white wine increased by 2%. 

Wine Australia manager for market insights Peter Bailey said that the result was expected, after the grape crush in 2025 increased by 11%, with nearly 90% of the additional tonnes being red.

“Production was still below the 10-year average, but it was the second vintage in a row where the crush increased from the 20-year low in 2023, despite the high levels of stock going into the 2025 vintage,” Bailey said.

Export sales increased by 3% to 638 million litres, driven by growth in exports to mainland China, which increased by 53 million litres to 85 million litres in the latest 12-month period.

Image: Andrii Omelnytskii, Scop.io